Daniel Varela shares his market outlook in Citywire

Financial markets: Daniel Varela’s analysis of recent trade tensions and what lies ahead

In an article published by Citywire, several Chief Investment Officers from Swiss private banks – including Daniel Varela, CIO at Piguet Galland – offer their perspective on current market turbulence, particularly that triggered by recent decisions from Donald Trump.

As investor concerns begin to ease slightly, the announcement of a truce in the trade war marks an unexpected turning point. Donald Trump has suspended, for a period of 90 days, the implementation of reciprocal tariffs – with the exception of a base 10% duty previously announced. This suspension applies to all of the United States’ trading partners, with the notable exception of China, which remains the primary target.

This strategic reversal is not entirely surprising. It signals that the US president is not completely indifferent to the recent decline in financial markets. Beyond the sharp drop in equities, it appears that growing tensions in the bond market may have prompted this decision. A disruption in capital markets represents a far greater threat to the global economy.

Following this announcement, equity markets saw a strong rebound, driven by a sense of relief in a climate that had been marked by widespread pessimism. This rebound could potentially continue in the coming days as recession fears begin to fade.

Nevertheless, Daniel Varela remains cautious and notes in Citywire that volatility is likely to persist in the medium term. The next three months will be key: political negotiations between the US and its trading partners are expected to intensify, and agreements to reduce tariff impacts are likely. These developments could support market sentiment, but US–China relations remain a major source of uncertainty.

📄 Read the full article on Citywire