Dockers' strike in the United States: what economic and political impact?
A strike by port workers at 36 US ports on the East Coast and Gulf of Mexico began yesterday morning. This protest action, whose economic repercussions are already palpable, could also have a significant impact on the Biden-Harris administration. In this article, we analyse the potential consequences of this strike, based on the notes provided.
Political challenges for the Biden-Harris administration
According to a JP Morgan study, the strike is expected to cost between 3.8 and 4.5 billion dollars per day. However, if the strike is limited in duration (less than two weeks), the economic impact should not be significant. On the other hand, if the strike is prolonged, the penalty will increase, and the political impact could also pose a problem for the Biden-Harris administration.
President Biden has already ruled out the possibility of forcing the workers back to work. Such a development would be negative for Kamala Harris, who positions herself as a supporter of the working class and cannot be seen to be working for the economic elite at the expense of workers. On the other hand, the strike could be beneficial for Trump, giving him valuable ammunition to criticise the economic management of the current team and the hypothetical Democratic succession.
That said, in the past, pragmatism has quickly prevailed and a negotiated solution should resolve the blockages before the strike causes too much damage. Alternative carriers (FedEx, UPS, Union Pacific) should pick up the slack and lessen the impact of this trade union movement until the strike is over.
A temporary effect on inflation
The strike will also probably have a negative effect on inflation (upward pressure), but this impact will be marginal and temporary. Once the strike is over, after a few days or weeks, inflation will return to its current downward trajectory.
The dockers' strike in the United States highlights the tensions between the economy and politics. While the economic consequences are already visible and more or less predictable, the political impact has yet to be determined. The challenge for the Biden-Harris administration will be to manage this crisis in the interests of workers, while minimising the negative effects on the economy.
An operation that requires a great deal of tact, at a critical time in the election campaign...
Investment Strategy, 4th Quarter 2024
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