Oil prices continued to defy expectations as the WTI neared USD 40 per barrel. They were lifted by Opec’s weekend announcement that it would extend its production cuts. The economic recovery has also been stronger than expected, which has provided a further boost.
Chinese imports were down 16.7% year on year in May, while exports fell just 3.3%, after rising 3.5% in April. This figure is slightly better than the consensus. Exports to the EU shrank in May, down 0.7%, but improved on the month-earlier decline of 4.5%.
The European Central Bank surprised the financial markets in a good way when it increased its asset purchase programme by EUR 600 billion and extended it to end-June 2021. The latest fiscal and monetary measures are a major step forward for the eurozone and show that political leaders want to strengthen coordination within the EU.
V for victory?
The May jobs report in the USA came as a big surprise. April had been a harsh month – more than 20 million Americans filed jobless claims as a result of the COVID-19 crisis. Most observers had expected the labour market to continue to worsen in May, with millions more jobs forecast to be wiped out and unemployment set to rise to nearly 20% of the working population. But fortunately this very gloomy outlook did not materialise. As lockdown measures were lifted in a number of states, close to three million jobs were added over the month. This pushed the unemployment rate down to 13.3%. The outcome was better than anyone had hoped for. It shows that companies are starting to believe that output will pick up quickly and don’t want to wait before rehiring employees who were let go at the start of the crisis. This improvement in the jobs market is great news for the US economy and the global economy as a whole. If it continues, it should help to trigger a virtuous cycle of renewed US consumer confidence and rising consumer spending. It also means that we could see a V-shaped recovery. Most economists – including us – hadn’t dared to hope for anything more than a U-shaped recovery, i.e. a very gradual acceleration in output. Financial markets didn’t get it wrong and welcomed these figures, rallying sharply over the week. But can they keep up this trend given that they have already made substantial gains since mid-March? The momentum both within and among asset classes suggests that the rebound will continue over the short to medium term. The stock-market uptrend has become more widespread recently, and lower-quality bonds, commodities and peripheral and emerging-market currencies have also moved upwards. We’ll nevertheless have to keep a close eye on the risks that could derail this potential V-shaped recovery. There could be profit-taking if geopolitical risks materialise, if there is a second wave of infections or if governments and central banks rein in their stimulus too quickly.
Piguet Galland Mega-tendances – our approach to thematic investing
The world is evolving at an ever-faster pace, driven by technological innovations, social changes and new environmental challenges. If investors are to enjoy above-average returns over the long term, they need to be able to identify and tap into the value created by these trends. The Piguet Galland Mega-tendances Certificate responds to these concerns by bringing together eight of our investment vehicles. Unlike more traditional strategies, it avoids the drawbacks of a sector- or region-specific approach.
We are convinced that companies whose fundamentals are based on solid long-term trends are much more resilient throughout the business cycle and deliver higher returns over the long term. This is particularly true during periods of extreme volatility, like the one we are going through this year. The coronavirus pandemic brought the global economy to a standstill, but it also sped up the transition to online shopping, contactless payment solutions, remote working and online doctor’s appointments. Most of the theme-based equity baskets that we have launched in recent years – including our US Millennials, Smart Cities and Climate Action certificates – have recorded year-to-date gains. We think thematic investing needs to be integrated into portfolios in order to enhance diversification and set the stage for higher returns over the long term.
Author
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Daniel Varela holds a degree in business administration with a specialisation in finance from the University of Geneva and began his career in 1989 as a fixed income manager. He joined Banque Piguet & Cie in 1999 as head of institutional asset management and with responsibility for bond analysis and management. In 2011, he became head of the investment strategy and Piguet Galland's investment department. In 2012, he joined Piguet Galland's Executive Committee as CIO.
