The Forecast for 2025: Analysis by a Piguet Galland expert in Le Temps

What Economic Trends Will Define 2025?
In a recent article published in Le Temps, Daniel Varela, Chief Investment Officer at Piguet Galland, shares his insights and sheds light on global financial challenges. His valuable perspective comes at a time when geopolitical and economic uncertainties are reshaping the outlook for the future.

2025: The Year of the "Golden Loop"?

When asked which word best describes 2025, Daniel Varela responds with "golden loop." This financial term refers to a favorable situation where growth and inflation remain at solid but manageable levels.

According to Daniel Varela, "we are at the beginning of a cycle." Despite a sharp rise in interest rates, the previous cycle did not lead to a recession or major financial crisis. Rate cuts and the gradual moderation of inflation could create fertile ground for a growth recovery, beneficial for financial markets.

Optimism Tempered by Geopolitical Risks

However, Daniel Varela warns that this balance is fragile. The potential return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency could spark economic tensions, particularly through protectionist policies. "Many of the announced measures are unlikely to be fully implemented," he notes, emphasizing that negotiations could mitigate the impact of tariffs. Nonetheless, if protectionist policies intensify, they risk slowing the global economy and triggering retaliatory trade actions.

The Role of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the Strength of the Franc

Regarding Switzerland, Daniel Varela is skeptical about the return of negative interest rates. He believes the SNB will reserve this tool for emergencies, such as widespread deflation. Currently, Swiss growth remains stable, and the Swiss franc, while strong, is not "overvalued" when considering purchasing power parity. The SNB could intervene to curb a rapid appreciation, but the current situation is not seen as critical.

A Balanced Vision for 2025

Through his insights shared in Le Temps, Daniel Varela offers a balanced and nuanced perspective on the economic dynamics of 2025. While highlighting growth opportunities, he underscores the importance of anticipating risks to navigate an ever-changing environment.

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